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When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .
See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, so it estimates how likely each party is to win — not just whether it will win.
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls.
See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump by about 4.5 points on average. If polls underestimate Harris by the same amount, she will win all of the states 538 currently rates as toss-up states up to and including Florida.
Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”.
No Electoral College majority, House decides election. See the Senate forecast. * This is FiveThirtyEight’s best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.
Who’s ahead in the North Carolina Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the Texas Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.