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Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
The MSE either assesses the quality of a predictor (i.e., a function mapping arbitrary inputs to a sample of values of some random variable), or of an estimator (i.e., a mathematical function mapping a sample of data to an estimate of a parameter of the population from which the data is sampled).
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(200% for the first formula and 100% for the second formula). Provided the data are strictly positive, a better measure of relative accuracy can be obtained based on the log of the accuracy ratio: log( F t / A t ) This measure is easier to analyse statistically, and has valuable symmetry and unbiasedness properties.
[20] [19] In 2009 he also predicted that the US government would take over and nationalize a number of large banks; it did not happen. [21] In October 2009 he predicted that the price of gold "can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30%”; he was wrong, as the price of gold rose over the next 18 months, breaking through the $1,000 ...
For example, to calculate the 95% prediction interval for a normal distribution with a mean (μ) of 5 and a standard deviation (σ) of 1, then z is approximately 2. Therefore, the lower limit of the prediction interval is approximately 5 ‒ (2⋅1) = 3, and the upper limit is approximately 5 + (2⋅1) = 7, thus giving a prediction interval of ...
In computing, a roundoff error, [1] also called rounding error, [2] is the difference between the result produced by a given algorithm using exact arithmetic and the result produced by the same algorithm using finite-precision, rounded arithmetic. [3] Rounding errors are due to inexactness in the representation of real numbers and the ...
A confidence interval for the parameter , with confidence level or coefficient , is an interval determined by random variables and with the property: The number , whose typical value is close to but not greater than 1, is sometimes given in the form (or as a percentage ), where is a small positive number, often 0.05.