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(200% for the first formula and 100% for the second formula). Provided the data are strictly positive, a better measure of relative accuracy can be obtained based on the log of the accuracy ratio: log( F t / A t ) This measure is easier to analyse statistically, and has valuable symmetry and unbiasedness properties.
Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
For a confidence level, there is a corresponding confidence interval about the mean , that is, the interval [, +] within which values of should fall with probability . ...
The coefficient of variation (CV) is defined as the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean , [1] It shows the extent of variability in relation to the mean of the population. The coefficient of variation should be computed only for data measured on scales that have a meaningful zero ( ratio scale) and hence allow relative comparison of two ...
Pythagorean expectation. Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula devised by Bill James to estimate the percentage of games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to make predictions and evaluate which teams are ...
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In computing, a roundoff error, [1] also called rounding error, [2] is the difference between the result produced by a given algorithm using exact arithmetic and the result produced by the same algorithm using finite-precision, rounded arithmetic. [3] Rounding errors are due to inexactness in the representation of real numbers and the ...
A confidence interval for the parameter , with confidence level or coefficient , is an interval determined by random variables and with the property: The number , whose typical value is close to but not greater than 1, is sometimes given in the form (or as a percentage ), where is a small positive number, often 0.05.