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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ESTIMATE. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. If you want to see a snapshot of what voters are thinking right now — with no fancy modeling — check out the national polls.
In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump by about 4.5 points on average. If polls underestimate Harris by the same amount, she will win all of the states 538 currently rates as toss-up states up to and including Florida.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls.
See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, so it estimates how likely each party is to win, not just whether it’ll win.
FiveThirtyEight's polls and forecast for the 2020 Democratic presidential primary election.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. KEY. ESTIMATE. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE.