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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the...
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted...
Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania Senate ? An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Democrats have a narrow path to Senate control after 2024, but it’s narrow indeed, and one that might require the GOP continuing to nominate bad candidates — and a fair share of luck.
The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.
If we look just at the polls-version of our forecast, Democrat Sara Gideon’s odds jump from around 6 in 10 to about 3 in 4 thanks to Gideon’s 6-point lead in our adjusted average of Senate...
The five most competitive 2022 Senate races, by their likelihood of deciding Senate control according to the FiveThirtyEight final Deluxe forecast