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Think of an instagram picture. The more filters you put on it, the less detailed the image becomes. So when 538 are applies algorithms to the polls to make them more accurate than the poll itself, they are just adding statistical noise. Even if 538's numbers are more correct in 2024, it is because a broken clock is right twice a day.
the election night one where Trump won was particularly memorable. Especially if you listen to it after/before hearing the NYT's politics podcast recorded literally as Trump is announced the winner. Nate is sleep deprived and is repeating how the model predicted this and everyone underrated Trump's chances. NYT react like it was a million to ...
What your opinion on the 538 Politics podcast sans Nate Silver? News & Current Affairs. Its been a while now since Nate (and his model) left 538. Since then I have noticed a pretty big shift in the show. I listen to a bunch of politics podcasts, and 538's niche previously was that it was data driven. Mathematics was what drove the discussions.
Fivethirtyeight weights polls based on past performance and methodology. And they also include polls from over two weeks ago, but their weighting depends on the quality and quantity of recent polling. TL;DR: RCP only averages polls over the last two weeks. Fivethirtyeight uses fancy math to make their best guess based on available polling. 34.
There’s no reason 538 couldn’t be more about democracy and less about horse race politics. Meta I’m a pretty religious 538 politics podcast listener but I’ve grown quite saddened about the degree to which the podcast revolves around what polls say about horse race politics rather than how horse race politics is related to the polity.
First, ABC has destroyed it. 538 used to be a bastion of data-driven journalism across more than just sports. The sports content was great, and there were consistent interesting human interest stories, such as when Americans think seasons truly start, and fun games like The Riddler.
538 drops Rasmussen Reports from its analysis. Moderator Announcement Read More ». Years overdue. On behalf of the group College Republicans United, Rasmussen asked Arizona voters who they voted for in Lake’s race and, after weighting the results to exit polls — which is unusual — declared that, contrary to the certified tally, Kari Lake ...
538 & Real clear politics, Ohio 2024 Senate race polling. Brown currently leads by an average of 5% points against Moreno.
r/fivethirtyeight. r/fivethirtyeight. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. MembersOnline. •. theLogicality. ADMIN MOD. 538 website redesigned to integrate into ABC News. abcnews.go.com Open.
As for other pods, I like Tangle (only 1 guy, so no group banter), Left, Right and Center, and the NPR Politics Podcast. I think Tangle is my favorite, but LRC is pretty good too. NPR is just fine. Incidentally, I picked up Tangle from the recommendation of someone in this very subreddit. 7.