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Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
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The MSE either assesses the quality of a predictor (i.e., a function mapping arbitrary inputs to a sample of values of some random variable), or of an estimator (i.e., a mathematical function mapping a sample of data to an estimate of a parameter of the population from which the data is sampled).
The coefficient of variation (CV) is defined as the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean , [1] It shows the extent of variability in relation to the mean of the population. The coefficient of variation should be computed only for data measured on scales that have a meaningful zero ( ratio scale) and hence allow relative comparison of two ...
(200% for the first formula and 100% for the second formula). Provided the data are strictly positive, a better measure of relative accuracy can be obtained based on the log of the accuracy ratio: log( F t / A t ) This measure is easier to analyse statistically, and has valuable symmetry and unbiasedness properties.
The formula is used with an exponent of 2.37 and gives a projected winning percentage. That winning percentage is then multiplied by 17 (for the number of games played in an NFL season from 2021), to give a projected number of wins. This projected number given by the equation is referred to as Pythagorean wins.
Binomial proportion confidence interval. In statistics, a binomial proportion confidence interval is a confidence interval for the probability of success calculated from the outcome of a series of success–failure experiments ( Bernoulli trials ). In other words, a binomial proportion confidence interval is an interval estimate of a success ...
For a confidence level, there is a corresponding confidence interval about the mean , that is, the interval [, +] within which values of should fall with probability . ...