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(200% for the first formula and 100% for the second formula). Provided the data are strictly positive, a better measure of relative accuracy can be obtained based on the log of the accuracy ratio: log( F t / A t ) This measure is easier to analyse statistically, and has valuable symmetry and unbiasedness properties.
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Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
Circular bivariate normal distribution 20 hits distribution example. The original concept of CEP was based on a circular bivariate normal distribution (CBN) with CEP as a parameter of the CBN just as μ and σ are parameters of the normal distribution.
The coefficient of variation (CV) is defined as the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean , [1] It shows the extent of variability in relation to the mean of the population. The coefficient of variation should be computed only for data measured on scales that have a meaningful zero ( ratio scale) and hence allow relative comparison of two ...
[20] [19] In 2009 he also predicted that the US government would take over and nationalize a number of large banks; it did not happen. [21] In October 2009 he predicted that the price of gold "can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30%”; he was wrong, as the price of gold rose over the next 18 months, breaking through the $1,000 ...
One can then also calculate the mean square of the model by dividing the sum of squares of the model minus the degrees of freedom, which is just the number of parameters. Then the F value can be calculated by dividing the mean square of the model by the mean square of the error, and we can then determine significance (which is why you want the ...
For example, to calculate the 95% prediction interval for a normal distribution with a mean (μ) of 5 and a standard deviation (σ) of 1, then z is approximately 2. Therefore, the lower limit of the prediction interval is approximately 5 ‒ (2⋅1) = 3, and the upper limit is approximately 5 + (2⋅1) = 7, thus giving a prediction interval of ...