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Pollster Nate Silver’s election forecast now shows Vice President Harris narrowly leading former President Trump for the first time since the model launched. Harris tops Trump by 1.4 percentage ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
Nathaniel Read Silver(born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker playerwho analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023.[2]
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
After Biden dropped out, the election forecast models went dark. Trump leads Harris in the DDHQ national polling average by 2 points, but this includes relatively few polls released since last Sunday.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2024 United States presidential election.The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
The RealClearPolitics poll average has Harris over Trump by less than one percent, while the 538 poll aggregate has Harris leading by more than two percent.. On Thursday, Donald Trump held a press ...
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Cornel West. [] Local regression of polling between Harris, Trump, Kennedy, West and Stein conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided ). The dashed line is when Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.