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An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
We’ve gotten a few new polls since yesterday’s update but there’s very little movement in the model from day to day. Harris now leads by 3.4 points in our national polling average and has a 57 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted...
In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump by about 4.5 points on average. If polls underestimate Harris by the same amount, she will win all of the states 538 currently rates as toss-up states up to and including Florida.
4. The Rust Belt / Sun Belt gap is even wider than polls show. In other words, the polls are correct about racial depolarization but aren’t going far enough. This is basically the story that recent New York Times polls have been telling, for instance. They have Harris winning the Rust Belt states but losing Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections. The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.
Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”