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Latest updates. Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 56-in-100 chance of winning the majority of...
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and...
An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast. All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris. 🕒 Last update: 1:30 p.m., Friday, October 4. Another day, another few polls added to the model, and still very little change to the overall forecast.
For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election. 1. Calculate polling averages.
538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.
Today 538 published our official forecast for the 2024 presidential election. The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in November.