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As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below. Latest Developments
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections.He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023. [2]
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
Pollster Nate Silver’s election forecast now shows Vice President Harris narrowly leading former President Trump for the first time since the model launched. Harris tops Trump by 1.4 percentage ...
The Keys to the White House. The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction ...
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.