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538’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodological transparency of each polling organization’s polls. We define accuracy as the average adjusted error and bias of a pollster’s surveys.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
95% of polls projected to fall in this range Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages.
Who’s ahead in the national polls? An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”
State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology . Sort by date
An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s margin over Donald Trump by about 4.5 points on average. If polls underestimate Harris by the same amount, she will win all of the states 538 currently rates as toss-up states up to and including Florida.